Eurasia Press & News
The Russian Federation has indeed supplied significant weapons to Baku and Yerevan in recent years, but according to experts from the US military, this pace of supply is unlikely to continue after the end of the war.
The brief analysis of the situation since the end of September is as follows: Armenia and Azerbaijan have suffered losses of both soldiers and weapons. The losses are not small, on the contrary – they are quite large. At the same time, the Putin administration is trying to play the role of a peacemaker in the conflict and is holding meetings and talks with the parties concerned, which they want to end the conflict. And despite the regular meetings in Moscow, they did not give the expected result. On the contrary, hostilities continue in full force, which in one way or another threatens Moscow’s position.
Analysts also acknowledge Turkey’s role in the conflict. Many argue that with the decline of Russian influence in the region, Turkish has increased proportionately. Thus, according to Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), Moscow’s leading voice has been muffled and Erdogan and Aliyev have improved relations, giving Ankara a stronger influence on Azerbaijan, at the expense of of Russia.
We remind you that the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system is in the service of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. But the main problem in this “unequal” war is the lack of finances in Yerevan. Because Yerevan has old Russian weapons, and the purchased 4 ++ generation Su-30 fighters and the Tor-M2KM missile system were acquired only through loans from Russian banks.
On the other side of the barrier is Baku, which enjoys good financial condition due to oil deposits in the country. This gives a certain freedom to the Azerbaijani military, which has the right to choose more when buying weapons – something that is missing in Yerevan. We remind you – Baku has Russian weapons purchased very recently (2018 – ed.) Worth a total of $ 5 billion, and very recently acquired the intercontinental missile Iskander.
When the war is over, both sides are expected to begin various processes to acquire new weapons. But Yerevan will be in the same position – no money, it will rely on Russian loans or Putin’s blessings. While Azerbaijan is already buying both Turkish and Israeli weapons, which brings us back to the starting position on the subject under investigation – weapons will be bought, but this position of Moscow will be gradually shifted by other players in international military markets.
And these allegations are backed up by evidence. Baku has given only 22% of its military power to Russian arms manufacturers, precisely because of Tel Aviv and Ankara’s participation in the newly opened military market, thanks to Azerbaijan’s oil deposits in the Caucasus.
Every day, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense publishes videos or publishes reports on the destroyed Armenian equipment. According to them, the new Turkish and Israeli weapons are already being actively used in the conflict. Just two weeks ago, a video was circulated of an Israeli ballistic missile LORA hitting a key bridge for the Nagorno-Karabakh transport system.
Turkish drones, on the other hand, advertise themselves – after their success in Syria and Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh is on the agenda, where according to Azerbaijanis (if the data disseminated by the ministry can be trusted) the Bayraktars have already destroyed weapons worth $ 1 billion
This will be the second key factor that will tip the scales in favor of the military industry of Israel and Turkey. Because there is no better proof of the effectiveness of a weapon or weapon system than its participation in direct combat.
Just a Turkish drone will displace Russia’s leading military position in Baku.
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh escalated on September 27, active clashes are taking place in the disputed territory. Martial law was introduced in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and mobilization was announced. Both sides reported killed and wounded, including civilians. In Baku, they announced the control of several Karabakh villages and strategic heights. Yerevan also reports about the shelling of the territory of Armenia.
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been in conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh since February 1988, when the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijan SSR.
During the armed conflict in 1992-1994, the Azerbaijani side lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven areas adjacent to it. Since 1992, negotiations have been conducted within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group on a peaceful settlement of the conflict. The group is led by co-chairs – Russia, USA and France.
In 1994, Azerbaijan, Armenia and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, through the mediation of Russia, signed the Bishkek Armistice Protocol. At the same time, military operations did not stop there, which periodically renewed.
The most significant exacerbation of the conflict was the four-day war of 2016. Then hundreds of soldiers on both sides became victims.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, during a meeting with the President of Azerbaijan last year, called for a rhetoric that would go against the fundamental principles endorsed by both sides and enshrined in the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act when resolving the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry admitted that much more needs to be done to achieve a long-term political settlement.
