On 24 June, President Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge in over two decades at Russia’s helm: a mutiny by a mercenary group fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explore the implications for Putin’s rule and Russian foreign policy. What happened? On 24 June, …

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the 62-year-old former petty criminal-turned-restauranteur-billionaire warlord, has tackled many difficult assignments over the years as a Kremlin fixer: from propping up kleptocratic, authoritarian African rulers to sacking the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Now, following an aborted mutiny that challenged Russia’s military and handed President Vladimir Putin a major …

Reshuffling of the Russian High Command and the Syria Failure Russia was prepared for a two-week special operation—a larger version of the 2014 invasion of Crimea that stunned the Western strategic community. Vladimir Putin, relying on Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s hybrid warfare tactics, expected to achieve …

West Asia (the Middle East), known in contemporary history as a region in perpetual geopolitical flux has recently been home to some of the most significant diplomatic rapprochements. To begin with, the resumption of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, normalised relations between Riyadh and Tehran— …

On Monday night, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation for the second time with the intention to bring the curtain down on the coup attempt by Wagner “founder” Yevgeny Prigozhin on June 23-24. It was quintessentially a self-congratulatory speech — well-deserved, perhaps. The speech had four principal elements. First, …

Although the immediate threat of revolt has been extinguished, the episode may embolden future challengers to Russia’s status quo. Late last week, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group, launched a mutiny against the Russian state and began an armed march on Moscow. A day later, it was all …

In Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Wagner rebellion has exposed Russia’s fragility. The New York Times called it Russia’s “36-hour rebellion,” as if the weekend’s shattering events could be confined to a day and a half. Even if Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his group’s march on …

The regime is driven by ideas of supremacy and messianism, nationalism and imperialism. In this respect, there is no difference between Putin and his inner circle and Prigozhin.A version of this article first appeared in Russian in the New Times. “Treason doth never prosper, what’s the reason? For if it …

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant global upheaval, particularly in the form of fragmented supply chains. This was followed by the Taliban’s success in Afghanistan in August 2021, Russia’s intensification of its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and China’s announcement in 2023 that the world is experiencing a geopolitical …

In Istanbul, Tajik citizen Shamil Hukumatov, one of the leaders of the Khorasan cell of the Islamic State (IS-Khorasan) group, was arrested. Turkish media on June 22 reported that Hukumatov, also known as “Abu Miskin.” engaged in the recruitment of new militants for IG-Khorasan. Shamil Hukumatov was detained on Thursday …