Iran

The United States and foreign mediators seem to be attempting to delay or indefinitely postpone an Iranian and Hezbollah attack targeting Israel by both threatening Iran and presenting a potential ceasefire-hostage agreement as an off-ramp from further regional escalation. Both the United States and Israel have signaled that a strike …

Following the sudden death of Iran’s president, Ibrahim Raisi, the reformist politician Masoud Pezeshkian won the snap election to replace the hard-liner, a possible successor to supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian campaigned on a program of change, but not changing the system. He supports negotiating a nuclear deal with the …

This week as well, senior Iranian officials continued to threaten a harsh response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. They stressed Iran’s right to attack Israel despite political messages to Tehran to refrain from a direct attack on Israel. At the same time, it seems that the Iranian …

A steady flow of Russian weapons to Tehran could change the balance of power in the region, potentially triggering a response from the United States and Israel. The Middle East is experiencing a level of conflict unseen for decades. The spiral of escalation that began with the terrorist attacks against …

As the Biden administration desperately tries to prevent or limit a missile and drone attack by Iran and its proxies against Israel, it would be wise to remember that the Middle East is already awash in Iranian projectiles. Recently, an Iranian artillery rocket fired by Lebanese Hezbollah killed twelve children …

As countries around the world pressure Iran not to strike Israel — Tehran blames the Jewish state for the bomb that killed Haniyeh on July 31 — China was, in effect, publicly goading Iran to act. Hamas is a proxy of Iran. Iran’s regime believes that it is no one’s …

Iran knows that NATO-member Turkiye is Azerbaijan’s mutual defense ally so a wider war could easily follow if Iran strikes Azerbaijan out of the misguided desire to de-escalate tensions with Israel. The Telegraph’s scandalous report on Friday alleging that “Iran’s new president battles revolutionary guard to stop all-out war with …

[T]he likelihood of Iran launching another attack against Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh’s assassination appears to be receding, not least because Tehran is well aware that, in any major military confrontation with Israel, it will inevitably be the loser. Israeli officials also believe that the initial assault will not originate …

Different elements of the Iranian regime have advocated for varying responses to Israel’s killing of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. The different messages across the regime are very likely emblematic of differences in opinion between different camps in the regime. The messages may also …

Bottom Line Up Front Iran and its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” likely perceive recent Israeli attacks as an escalation designed to provoke a broader regional confrontation on Israel’s terms.Iran is likely to launch missiles and armed drones at Israel, aiming to cause extensive damage, in contrast to its …