The Lebanese government will reportedly attempt to persuade rather than coerce Hezbollah to disarm. Hezbollah is unlikely to disarm on its own accord and has historically evaded previous disarmament efforts. US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack said that the Lebanese government will focus on persuasion to encourage Hezbollah disarmament after his …
Read More »Iran’s Roads Not Taken: Tehran, Washington, and the Failures That Led to War
The 12-day war in June, which saw the United States join Israel in bombing Iran, was the culmination of four decades of mistrust, antipathy, and confrontation. Since its inception in 1979, the Islamic Republic has not wavered in its anti-Americanism, and the United States has unfailingly responded by exerting greater …
Read More »Clinging to nostalgia won’t save Iran’s regime from the next war
On the streets of Tehran, the oppressive heat continues, with a drought and water crisis putting the city of 10 million under pressure. The 12-day war between Israel and Iran may have ended in June, but nerves are frayed. Some Iranians have fled abroad, while others have returned from their …
Read More »Iran faces a perfect storm of domestic failures
Blackouts and dry water taps are nothing new for Iranians, but this year the country’s infrastructure problems have become a true crisis, one that is gripping 90 million people at once. Water scarcity, extreme heat and power outages further weaken an already strained economy, in a population so disillusioned with …
Read More »Iran Update, August 25, 2025
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected recent calls by Iranian reformist officials to reform Iran’s domestic and foreign policies.[1] Khamenei delivered a speech on August 24 in which he claimed that “Iran’s enemies” failed to defeat Iran during the Israel-Iran War and are now trying to do so by “creating …
Read More »Iran Update, August 22, 2025
Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani gave an interview on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website on August 22 in which he discussed Iran’s post-war defense and considerations for future conflicts.[1] Larijani warned that adversaries may seek new opportunities to attack Iran and that Iran must correct its defensive …
Read More »Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis
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Read More »Iran Update, August 21, 2025
Iraqi Popular Mobilization Committee (PMC) Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh defended the Popular Mobilization Authority Law against domestic critics during an interview with Iraqi media on August 20.[1] This law, which Parliament has yet to vote on, would likely increase Iran’s influence in the Iraqi political and security spheres by formalizing …
Read More »Tehran’s Homeland Option: Terror Pathways for Iran to Strike in the United States
Abstract: The 12-day Iran war may be over, but the threat of Iranian reprisal attacks now looms large, and will for the foreseeable future. European authorities exposed plots in Sweden and Germany even as the war was being waged, and Israeli authorities issued a warning over potential attacks in the …
Read More »Iran Update, August 18, 2025
Syrian security forces told Emirati media on August 16 that the Syrian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is preparing a three-pronged offensive to seize Raqqa and Deir ez Zor provinces. This report and others are likely part of an effort by Turkey and some elements of the Syrian transitional government to …
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