Middle Orient

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) conducted two attacks in late May 2025 targeting transitional government forces in eastern Suwayda Province, demonstrating that ISIS retains a presence along ground lines of communication (GLOC) between the central Syrian desert and southern Syria.[1] ISIS fighters detonated improvised explosive devices (IEDs) …

Lebanon’s municipal election results are the first indication that Hezbollah continues to wield influence over its supporters despite the recent war with Israel Lebanon’s municipal elections, which concluded on 24 May, were considered by observers as an important test for Hezbollah’s popularity following the recent war with Israel. The devastation …

Since 12 April, there have been five rounds of American-Iranian nuclear talks, held in Muscat and Rome under Omani auspices. These negotiations have yet to lead to a breakthrough. Yet, as fragile as they are, the talks appear to have some momentum. This offers a measure of cautious optimism that …

Seventeen of the European Union’s 27 foreign ministers last week backed a review of trade ties with Israel over its egregious actions in the Gaza Strip and the failure to fully lift its over 11-week blockade of aid as Palestinians starve to death. The bloc decided to launch a long …

Without a clear mandate, inclusivity, or enforcement mechanisms, transitional justice in Syria could become a political gesture instead of a transformative tool In a move that could redefine Syria’s post-war trajectory, the country’s interim government has announced the creation of a Transitional Justice Commission (TJC). The body, unveiled in early …

Abstract: Despite concerns about al-Qaida’s influence in Syria, the organization experienced a reversal in its fortunes over the course of the Syrian civil war. This article traces the history of the rise of Syria’s al-Qaida-loyalist outfit Hurras al-Din (“Guardians of the Religion”), its subsequent marginalization by the then dominant insurgent …

Executive Summary This report examines Iran’s strategic posture in the South Caucasus following Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh’s remarks at the Yerevan Dialogue 2025 forum. Highlighting Tehran’s stance on regional stability, his address stressed the importance of an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement and the Armenia-Iran corridor’s geopolitical significance. The analysis provides …

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This paper examines the complex situation of foreign fighters in Syria after the change of the former regime, details their composition, explores the long-term challenges and risks arising from their integration into the new Syrian army, their leadership roles, and the consequences of this locally and internationally, and addresses the …

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though …