Recent Posts

A French Spring amid a new Wagner Opera? Macron Pivots to BRICS as IMF Mission Creeps in Sri Lanka and India Provincializes Europe

Topped off by a curious ‘coup’ attempt in Russia, June was a fascinating month with new geopolitical economic developments, twists and turns on many fronts: As US President Biden wooed, wined and dined India’s Prime Minister Modi (who was once refused a visa to America), France’s Macron sought an invite …

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Why Azerbaijan May Find Itself a Victim of Its Own Success

Plentiful resources contribute to long-term success if channeled to the development of institutions, but Azerbaijan, like many other autocracies, is instead using them to burnish its image abroad and cement the status quo.Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, news out of Azerbaijan has been an unending series of announcements about achievements …

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The Death of Secret Intelligence? Think Again

While the Ukraine war has seen an explosion in the collection and distribution of open source intelligence, the work of secret intelligence agencies remains as important as ever. You’d be forgiven for thinking that the world of secret intelligence is no more. Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February …

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Ukraine–NATO Relations: Closer Partnership or Membership?

Kyiv’s bid to join NATO would bolster both Ukrainian and European security. The future of Ukraine–NATO relations is once again the number-one topic on the agenda for Alliance members in the lead-up to the forthcoming Vilnius Summit. The issue was just as acute 15 years ago when, at the Bucharest …

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Standing By or Choosing Sides: Wagner Mutiny Deepens Divides in Russian Opposition

The Wagner mercenary group’s rebellion against Russia’s military leadership has further split Russia’s anti-Kremlin opposition, which is already largely divided over a litany of issues and geographically scattered in exile. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled former oil tycoon turned opposition figure, swiftly emerged as the most vocal of Prigozhin’s unlikely supporters, …

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Has Wagner’s mutiny weakened Russia in the Middle East?

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted insurrection against the Russian Ministry of Defence (MOD) last month created massive confusion. The rebellion raised many questions about what might come next for the war in Ukraine and the future of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule. Other important questions pertain to the Wagner Group’s ‘March of …

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