Eurasia Press & News
As Christian Schmidt readies to quit as High Representative, Europe and its allies must resolutely push for a powerful successor – and forget ‘compromising’ with a United States that has radically shifted position in the region.
The succession of High Representative Christian Schmidt, who on May 10 announced his aim to depart until a successor is chosen to replace him, will demonstrate whether the EU and its wider circle of allies – what I and colleagues at the Democratization Policy Council call Europe+ – have the will to resist an aggressive United States seeking an economic and political foothold in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Those counselling a “compromise” with the Americans would be making a self-destructive mistake. Now is the time for Europe+ to get collectively serious about geopolitics in the region in which the EU is most empowered.
The UN Security Council meeting on May 11, at which Schmidt presented his final report, demonstrated the extent to which Donald Trump’s administration has shifted its posture from previous US bipartisan baselines – and even from its own. This began with the lifting last October of Treasury Department sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, his family, and a host of officials, individuals and officials around him.
In her remarks at the UN session, US ambassador Tammy Bruce stated that the Office was never intended to last forever and that Schmidt’s successor should be in place by June and have “a far more limited set of responsibilities”. She said Washington would evaluate the nominees based on “trust and impartiality” and oppose all candidates who threaten stability – stating that the US has its own candidates if need be.
Observers unfamiliar with any of the context of the changes in the US and the current political environment in Bosnia might read this state as forward-looking business as usual; in fact, it represents a radical shift that has brought the American position more in line with longtime opponents of the High Representative and his so-called Bonn Powers, such as the Republika Srpska’s Milorad Dodik, Bosnian Croat leader Dragan Covic and Russia.
Echoes were immediate: Moscow’s representative even used one of Dodik’s favourite terms of invective, saying the OHR had visited “legal violence against a sovereign country”. Russia and China did not miss the opportunity to state that Schmidt was never a legitimate High Representative to begin with.
EU members Denmark, France, Greece and Latvia represented a narrower spectrum, backing not only the Office but the role of the High Representative and the other peace enforcement tool mandated by the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement – EUFOR, which succeeded NATO’s force, SFOR, 21 years ago.
The Danish Ambassador called out Dodik’s secessionist rhetoric and derogatory statements on the basis of religion and ethnicity, against Muslims and Bosniaks. British Ambassador James Kariuki was also direct, underscoring support for a “fully empowered” High Representative, reiterating that the 5+2 formula remained the benchmark for closure of the Office, and stating that “significant electoral fraud” had occurred in Republika Srpska.
Kariuki also highlighted the “importance of constitutional reform that reflects the needs of all citizens and implements European Court of Human Rights jurisprudence”. He added: “Bosnia and Herzegovina’s future cannot be held hostage by divisive politics.”
Just a few years ago, the corporate EU posture toward the OHR – along with many member states – was to wish that it would close, so as to focus on Bosnia’s “membership perspective”, while the US and UK advocated assertive use of the High Representative’s role and Bonn Powers.
Now, in a sort of “Freaky Friday” (albeit on a Tuesday), these roles have been reversed. The Americans now advocate trimming the OHR’s sails for what amounts to “ownership” and the Europeans advocate continuity. The only fixed point is the United Kingdom.
The US wants someone else in place by the June Peace Implementation Council, PIC, meeting. Schmidt stated on May 10 that he would remain until the selection process was completed.
Europe+ at the PIC Steering Board – France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, as well as the European Commission, the UK, Canada and Japan – should resist a rush job and encourage Schmidt to remain in post through the October elections. They need to use this time to develop a new Bosnia and Herzegovina and regional strategy, with a new High Rep selected to spearhead that policy on the ground. That necessitates someone high-powered.
No longer the ‘only game in town’
The US has apparently informally floated a candidate, Antonio Zanadi Landi, of the Sovereign Order of Malta, currently the Order’s Ambassador to the Holy See. He previously served as Italy’s Ambassador to Serbia and Montenegro, as well as to Russia. Informally, many European diplomats have voiced concern. The US seal of approval, with Trump at the helm and a now avowedly accommodationist and mercantilist policy being pursued in Bosnia and the region, represents the Mark of Cain to many Europeans.
But if Europe+ intends to defend the OHR and the High Representative’s powerful role, it must defend its own interests and push for a Bosnia that advances toward genuine, popularly accountable democratic governance.
Only in this fashion is Bosnia’s candidacy for EU membership ever likely to bear fruit. In addition, only with a reinvigorated OHR and EUFOR can the designs of Serbia and Croatia in Bosnia be resisted – so finally restabilizing the region after 20 years of regression that began with the EU’s “ownership” and technocratic, enlargement-centric posture.
Schmidt’s impending departure, apparently the result of strong US pressure that could be read as cynically opportunistic, if properly approached, has the potential to catalyse a change that ought to have come long ago. The policy shift already evident toward recognising the need to keep an enforcement tool effectively constitutes an admission of failure on the part of the EU. But it is far from clear that the political will to take the necessary steps to ensure that Europe+ selects and maintains an empowered High Representative has the breadth to carry the day.
It has been some time since the EU hubristically declared that it was “the only game in town” for Bosnia and other Western Balkan countries – primarily, their political classes. Even before the US’s turn, competition from “malign foreign influence” had generated reams of research and programmes. It is also clear that numerous figures – including former High Representatives – have a different sort of change in mind, embracing a “Dayton 2” renegotiation among the elites and closure of the OHR.
Logically, so long as the Dayton Peace Agreement remains valid, Bosnia needs a potent OHR and EUFOR. It only makes sense as a package deal. The goal should be a democratic and popularly accountable sovereign, integral state in which a sweeping majority of its citizens are invested. I sketched out one way to get there in detail six months ago. There are other potential configurations. But to maintain hope in these, the US challenge needs to be seen off by a resolute Europe+.
The US policy shift, followed by aggressive efforts to entrench American business interests through tactically crafted laws and transactional political deals, represents a direct challenge to the EU and Europe+ in its own backyard.
Given the Trump administration’s antipathy toward the EU (the US no longer advocates a Bosnian path toward membership, hitherto a staple), the American moves likely are intended to actually prevent EU membership from happening.
Even before the return of Trump, the country and wider region were advancing towards being hollowed-out spaces, with people emigrating to live and work elsewhere after years of disgust at the malgovernance and corruption they saw everywhere.
The region seemed groomed to become a “Balkan Transnistria” of refugee camps, toxic waste dumps and mining sites consigned to the periphery of the EU – with a population of mostly pensioners, stubborn idealists and imported menial labour from further east, ruled by authoritarians or oligarchs. It would also be a destination for illicit activities impossible in the EU, on its very doorstep.
This glidepath would suit Trump world fine, so long as it got a big piece of the action. And in the bizarre bazaar of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s for-profit politics, there is always a willing seller, if the price is right. A Bosnia under Dayton, but without enforcement tools, would be Bosnia’s peace cartel’s dreamscape – and a nightmare for actual Bosnians and Herzegovinians. Such an American Transnistria would also pose a direct threat to Europe+, drawing people who seek a window seat on the EU without any effective rules.
Europe needs to get out of its comfort zone
In Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in January, he stated that the global order was experiencing a breach as a result of American moves. As with his use of Václav Havel’s example of the greengrocer who decided to live in truth by no longer placing a sign in his window stating “Workers of the world, unite!”, there is no need for Europe+ to try to continue a pantomime “compromise” with the US for a transatlantic unity that is just not there. The US has unilaterally shifted the Overton Window to such an extent that “compromise” is, in fact, capitulation.
In a practical sense, in the near term, this means putting forward a common Europe+ nominee fully capable of the executive role in the current challenging local, regional, and international environment.
This nominee needs to participate in the strategic framework assembly for a Europe+ policy pivot toward the region – and be empowered to not merely represent it but co-generate that strategy and coordinate Europe+ equities.
When the OHR was most effective, in the Paddy Ashdown era, this was the reality. National capitals subcontracted largely to him, while remaining on the board. Appropriate time should be devoted to the strategy and the selection of the right woman or man. The target date for taking the helm should be as soon after the October elections as is feasible, with Schmidt remaining until then. Europe+ also needs to resolve to pay the entire OHR budget, should the Americans withhold their contribution. There is no avoiding confrontation with the US, given the radically divergent views.
Bosnia and Herzegovina and the wider Western Balkan Six constitute turf that the EU/Europe+ can hold sway over, against geopolitical hegemons. It is the only theatre in the world in which Europe+ can be decisive right now. But this holds true only if it leaves its comfort zone and fundamentally changes its mode of operation. But it need not change its goals to do so. And it cannot afford to abandon its proclaimed values – they are what make it unique. Rather, it needs to put not just its money but its muscle where its mouth has been. And it needs to recognise who its real allies are in these societies. They are not at the commanding heights.
Any alternative course – acceptance of US dictates or seeking a compromise – would condemn Bosnia to even deeper kleptocratic oligarchy under the current ruling elite. In particular, both the former Repubika Srpska President and its de facto ruler, Dodik, and his Croat nationalist wingman, Dragan Covic, stand to benefit. But it is almost certain that they will find willing partners in Sarajevo, as they have in the past.
Europe needs to demonstrate to itself, as well as to the US, Russia, China and a host of regional and Bosnian actors, that it can carry the day here. But it also needs to demonstrate that it can evolve out of what some call its brittle “no mistakes” policy, which keeps it bound to its failures. Europe+ has to prove that it can learn – and lead.
