A brief and poorly explained landing of a U.S. military transport aircraft in Tbilisi at the end of March 2026 has become a subject of discussion and speculation about its real significance, fueling suspicions that more complex geopolitical signals may lie behind the official explanation of a “routine flight.” Let’s …
Read More »Deniable, Disposable, Disruptive: Iran’s Hybrid Warfare in Europe Demands a Proactive Response
The low-sophistication, high-volume approach used in wartime attacks claimed by the front group HAYI has exposed critical vulnerabilities in Western efforts to harden soft targets, curb online recruitment, and protect Jewish communities amid spillover from the Middle East. At the outset of the Iran war, many expected the regime to …
Read More »Applying US Air Warfare Theory and Doctrine to Evaluate the Campaign against Iran, Part II: Iranian Missile Forces
The US-Israel combined force achieved meaningful operational and strategic successes vis-à-vis the Iranian ballistic missile program before the ceasefire. The combined force spent weeks striking a wide range of missile facilities across Iran based on long-standing US air warfare theory and doctrine. This effort disrupted Iran’s missile operations, degraded its …
Read More »Iran Update Special Report May 4, 2026
Key Takeaways Iran is attempting to demonstrate its “control” over the Strait of Hormuz in response to US attempts to secure freedom of commercial navigation in the strait. Iran is attempting to disrupt these US efforts and demonstrate its control by attacking commercial vessels, oil infrastructure in the United Arab …
Read More »Iran: Four Illusions of a 60-Day-War
When President Donald Trump triggered the current war against Iran more than 60 days ago, the assumption mostly promoted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the junior partner in the enterprise, was that the whole thing would be wrapped up within weeks by Tehran implicitly admitting defeat, as it did …
Read More »Guerre contre l’Iran : Trump doit se prononcer sur trois options
L’impasse dans la guerre contre l’Iran perdure. Le détroit d’Ormuz reste (pour l’essentiel) fermé. Le blocus américain du trafic maritime vers l’Iran, bien que présentant des failles, est toujours en vigueur. L’Iran estime que la guerre est loin d’être terminée : «Dans l’ensemble, le sentiment en Iran est que la …
Read More »How Iran’s Other Army Is Fighting the War
With much attention directed toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) role in the conflict launched just over two months ago by the United States and Israel, another military command has steadily increased its participation in Iran’s war effort. The Islamic Republic of Iran Army—also known as the Artesh—constitutes Iran’s …
Read More »“Je vais pulvériser l’Iran une bonne fois pour toutes”, selon Trump, entre deux annonces de fin de conflit
Le plus grand danger vient d’Israël. Se sentant abandonné, Netanyahu pourrait recourir à des manoeuvres sécuritaires de grande ampleur pour entraîner Washington dans un choc militaire direct. Analyse stratégique et géopolitique du vendredi 1er mai 2026 au soir Le bras de fer politique à Washington a pris fin, et le …
Read More »Iran Update Special Report, May 1, 2026
Key Takeaways US President Donald Trump stated that he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal. Trump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest proposal reflects continued Iranian inflexibility on key issues, such as the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is exploiting the current ceasefire to try to reconstitute its …
Read More »Iran War Is Accelerating America’s Decline in Southeast Asia
Washington’s war with Iran may be unfolding thousands of miles away, but in Southeast Asia its political aftershocks are immediate and measurable. Energy shocks, disrupted trade routes, and deepening uncertainty about US leadership are quietly recalibrating regional alignments. For many governments in ASEAN, the war does not look like a …
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