The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) reiterated that it will trigger the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions on Iran if Iran fails to make progress towards a nuclear deal by the end of August 2025.[1] CTP-ISW previously assessed that …
Read More »Squirming axis. After the strikes of the United States and Israel, Iranian proxies are weakened, but not defeated
In a short war with Israel and the United States, none of the many proxies could help Iran: the “axis of resistance” for years built by the Islamic Republic, formed from groups that oppose Israel and the United States, was practically broken. However, according to the orientalist Marianne Belenka, the …
Read More »Iran’s New Trap vs. Trump’s Once-in-a-Lifetime Chance to Transform the Middle East
President Donald J. Trump, through a bold and unapologetic foreign policy, has emerged in just a few short months, as the only leader in recent history capable of reshaping the region and challenging Iran’s theocratic dictatorship with real consequences. His actions have already produced historic results… If Trump settles into …
Read More »The Post-Iranian Middle East
America and Israel Can Build a New Regional Order Five decades ago, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin established the principle that Israel would not allow any country that calls for its destruction to acquire nuclear weapons. And beginning on June 13, it made good on this pledge. Over nearly two …
Read More »The Risk Of Civil War In Iran: Disunity, The Loss Of Agency – Analysis
The 12-day war between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran shattered not only the regime’s military credibility but also exposed the structural weaknesses within the Iranian opposition. While the regime lost much of its deterrent power and legitimacy, the opposition failed to translate this moment into political gain. It …
Read More »Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis
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Read More »Iran Update, July 9, 2025
Russia offered to help replenish Iran’s depleted uranium stockpile to support a peaceful nuclear program.[1] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Russia’s involvement in the US-Iran nuclear talks would be very unlikely to secure US interests due to Russia’s alignment with Iran.[2] Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on July 8 …
Read More »Iran: Will the West Finish the Job?
Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is not a turning point. It is business as usual. Tehran’s decades-long strategy — deny, delay, deceive — continues, and the West still refuses to call it for what it is: a slow-motion march toward nuclear capability. Pictured: Reza …
Read More »Iran Update, July 7, 2025
Key Takeaways Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian took advantage of an interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson on July 7 to platform Iran’s demands and misrepresent Iran’s destabilizing activities and role in the Middle East. Pezeshkian leveraged the interview to falsely present Iran as a peaceful force in the Middle …
Read More »Iran Update, July 8, 2025
Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei denied on July 8 US President Donald Trump’s July 7 claim that Iran requested nuclear talks.[1] Western and regional officials told Reuters on July 8 that Iran may “drag out” the talks to avoid either renewed airstrikes if negotiations fail or “humiliation at …
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