Iran

Iranian leaders face fundamental questions about their strategy and military priorities in the aftermath of the Israel-Iran war. They failed to deter US and Israeli strikes or to defend their airspace, giving Israeli forces the freedom to strike a wide range of critical targets across Iran. Iranian missile forces failed …

Washington brokered an agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on August 8 aimed at opening a transit corridor through the South Caucasus. The new agreement replaces the original Zangezur Corridor plan with the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). Unlike the model preferred by Azerbaijan and Turkey, TRIPP will …

Iranian Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati discussed the threats that Iran perceives to its regional influence in an interview on August 9 that underscored Iran’s commitment to its strategic goals despite recent setbacks.[1] Velayati’s statements demonstrate significant continuity between Iran’s pre- and post-war approach to the region …

The Lebanese Council of Ministers agreed on August 7 to the objectives of US Envoy Thomas Barrack’s proposal to disarm Hezbollah.[1] The proposal’s objectives include a phased plan to completely disarm Hezbollah by December 31, 2025, and to ensure an Israeli withdrawal from its five permanent positions in southern Lebanon.[2] …

Iran’s highest national security and foreign policy decision-making body, the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), established a Defense Council on August 3 to streamline decision-making during wartime.[1] The establishment of this body, which will operate under the SNSC, likely reflects Iranian leaders’ recognition of systemic operational failures during the Israel-Iran …

Earlier this year, the Arab Gulf states were riding high. The energy crisis that followed the coronavirus pandemic had filled their coffers and renewed their roles as the stewards of global oil markets—and, in Qatar’s case, a reliable source of liquefied natural gas. Over the past few years, the Gulf …

The IRGC spokesman stated that the Israeli defense minister’s threats against the IranianSupreme Leader were intended for psychological warfare and that the Iranian armed forcesare prepared to resume fighting with Israel. The Iranian chief of staff also stressed that hiscountry is prepared to deal decisively with the renewal of attacks …

The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) reiterated that it will trigger the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions on Iran if Iran fails to make progress towards a nuclear deal by the end of August 2025.[1] CTP-ISW previously assessed that …

In a short war with Israel and the United States, none of the many proxies could help Iran: the “axis of resistance” for years built by the Islamic Republic, formed from groups that oppose Israel and the United States, was practically broken. However, according to the orientalist Marianne Belenka, the …

President Donald J. Trump, through a bold and unapologetic foreign policy, has emerged in just a few short months, as the only leader in recent history capable of reshaping the region and challenging Iran’s theocratic dictatorship with real consequences. His actions have already produced historic results… If Trump settles into …