ISIS has been witnessing a new surge in its activity inside Syria since the change of the former regime in December 2024, taking advantage of the fragility of the transitional authority and the overlap of its structure with different factions. Despite intense international strikes, the group has been able to …
Read More »Israel and southern Syria: Force limits and settlement determinants in Sweida
The province of Sweida witnessed a wide security escalation after clashes between Druze factions and Bedouin tribes, followed by a military intervention by the Syrian Interim Government, prompting Israel to carry out air strikes it considered a response to the violation of the principle of the “demilitarized zone” and its …
Read More »Hemelik Maneuver: Changing the Regional Security Reality
The Middle East is undergoing a radical transformation after Israel succeeded in dismantling the Iranian cordon around it through the Hemlik Maneuver, which moved the confrontation from its borders to the depths of Iran. This process has redraw the balance of power and opened the door to a new regional …
Read More »US-Israeli proposal and transition towards a unilateral path in the Gaza Strip
The Israeli-American track is undergoing a qualitative shift with the announcement of US envoy Steve Whittoff of a “comprehensive deal” to stop the war in Gaza, including the release of hostages, the disarmament of Hamas, reconstruction, and the imposition of an international administration led by Washington, in a unilateral path …
Read More »Russia and the restoration of strategic presence in the changing Syrian scene
Since December 2024, Syria has undergone radical transformations that have redrawed the geopolitical landscape, as regime change has led to Russia losing its closest ally, but it has not ended its influence, as Moscow has maintained its military presence in Hmeimim and Tartus. In return, the interim government seeks to …
Read More »Israeli forces advance in Gaza City ahead of Trump-Netanyahu Gaza war talks
Israeli tanks thrust closer to the heart of Gaza City on Monday, pressing a ground offensive hours before talks between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump, who has hinted at a diplomatic breakthrough in a bid to end the war. After nearly two years of failed diplomatic …
Read More »Uzbek Foreign Fighter Groups in the Syrian Jihad: The Evolution of KIB and KTJ from 2011 through 2025
The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 revealed the ongoing significance of multiple foreign fighter organizations in Syria, groups that proved instrumental in Hayat Tahir al-Sham’s (HTS) campaign for Damascus. Among them were two primarily ethnic Uzbek fighter groups that originated in Central Asia: the Imam …
Read More »Hezbollah’s Margin is Tightening
The Lebanese government’s efforts to secure a monopoly over weapons are advancing, but can it ignore Iran? The decision of the Lebanese government on August 5* to officially endorse the state’s monopoly over weapons was an important milestone. Yet it was also incomplete, because it didn’t really address a dimension …
Read More »A Second Chance for a Consensual Process in Syria?
Knitting law and politics together into a constitution that serves as a repository of hard-won agreements is a matter of trust and bargaining, rather than foresight. But Syria’s will need both. In March 2025, interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa issued a constitutional declaration to govern the country’s transitional phase. The …
Read More »The Widespread Fallout of Israel’s Qatar Strikes
The operation against Hamas in Doha has eliminated the notion that the Middle East can rely on America for protection of its lands. The Gulf States’ Limited Options Israel’s air strike in Doha on Tuesday was a wakeup call for the Gulf states: There are few limits on Israel’s ability …
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