July, 2026

• 6 July

  1776-1976 : deux déclarations, une longue transformation de l’ordre international

  

  Le point de départ de mon intervention est une question en apparence simple : pourquoi rapprocher deux anniversaires aussi éloignés que les 250 ans de la Déclaration d’Indépendance des États-Unis d’Amérique et les 50 ans de la Charte d’Alger ? La réponse, à mon avis, ne peut pas être seulement …

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• 6 July

  The Failure of Israel’s Foreign Policy and the Emergence of a New Middle Eastern Security Order

  

  Israel’s recent regional strategy has exposed significant limitations in achieving its long-term foreign policy objectives, illustrating the widening gap between military operations and strategic success. While Iran’s resilience and diplomatic positioning have accelerated the emergence of a more multipolar and diplomatically driven Middle Eastern security order. Carl von Clausewitz once …

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• 6 July

  The US War on Iran Continues

  

  The US continues to playact diplomacy with Iran regarding the latest “memorandum of understanding” (MOU) signed, then immediately violated by the US, renegotiated, and supposedly agreed upon again — using the pause in all-out war to carefully shape the battlefield ahead of what will inevitably be another round of large-scale …

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• 4 July

  Iran Update Special Report, June 30, 2026

  Key Takeaways Iranian officials are simultaneously employing diplomatic outreach and military coercion to pressure regional states to support a new “regional security mechanism,” likely to advance Iran’s long-standing objective of expelling the United States from the Middle East. Iran is likely using this proposed regional security mechanism to encourage Gulf …

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• 4 July

  Inside Rubicon: The Structure of Russia’s Elite Drone Center

  

  Officially formed in August 2024 by Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, the “Rubicon” Center was created to centralize and scale Russia’s previously fractured unmanned technology initiatives (aerial, ground, and naval) under a unified umbrella responsible for research, procurement, training, and operational deployment. To prevent logistical bottlenecks and operate more independently …

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• 4 July

  Putin’s Crimea Trap: 5 Scenarios

  

  From a jewel in Vladimir Putin’s imperial crown to a thorn in his side, the 2014 conquest of Crimea is coming back to haunt him as Russia’s war in Ukraine falters. Russian-installed authorities in Crimea declared an “emergency situation” on June 26, after Ukrainian attacks helped produce fuel shortages, power …

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• 4 July

  Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 22-29, 2026)

  

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• 4 July

  14 Points on the 14 Points: Assessing the Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement

  

  This landmark document offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build real peace between Beirut and Jerusalem, but progress needs to be swift and visible given the threat of violent opposition from Iran and its local allies. After a rocky start to their fifth round of negotiations and a delay of several …

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• 4 July

  Between Peace and War: What the Iran-Trump Agreement Means for Russia

  

  The current interim situation between peace and war suits Moscow quite well. On the one hand, continued instability in the Persian Gulf prevents oil prices from falling. On the other hand, the conflict is not escalating into a full-scale war that could threaten other Russian interests. The prospect of an …

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• 4 July

  Why Siccing Syria’s Army on Hezbollah Is So Dangerous

  

  The potential upsides of implementing the Trump administration’s poorly conceived idea are negligible at best, while the downsides would be legion, including further damage to Middle East stability and American interests. From the Gaza Riviera to the promised annexation of Greenland to the alienation of India, to neutrality in Ukraine—and …

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