Recent Posts

Turkey’s spy bust escalates rivalry with Iran

Iran and Turkey are increasingly rivals in the Caucasus and in Iraq. The reported capture of Iranian spies in Turkey comes as the latest sign of the rivalry heating up between Ankara and Tehran, as bilateral tensions over Iraq and Syria have been steadily expanding to the Caucasus since last …

Read More »

Russia Is No Mideast Superpower

Washington Shouldn’t Overhype the Threat From Moscow The Russian Ministry of Defense pulled out all the stops for its annual arms expo outside Moscow in late August. For three days, defense ministers and dignitaries from 41 countries, including from the Middle East, were treated to exhibits of cutting-edge technology, live-fire …

Read More »

It’s time to replace the guarantor powers

Britain, Greece and Turkey have all failed in their assigned roles When the Republic of Cyprus was born in 1960, she was given three “god-mothers” – Britain, Greece and Turkey – who were meant to shield and protect the new-born baby against the threats confronting a new state in its …

Read More »

Die EU darf den Verantwortungslosen nicht nachgeben

Der Brexit ist im Grunde eine klare Sache. Die Regeln dafür sind in jahrelanger Kleinstarbeit festgezurrt worden. Dass London nun den Streit um die Grenzen in Nordirland neu entfacht, ist völlig unverständlich und wirft sehr fundamentale Fragen auf. Sind die britischen Verhandlungsführer tatsächlich so dilettantisch und kurzsichtig oder einfach nur …

Read More »

Brussels offering to help Johnson out of mess

A detail in the story of Brexit, often forgotten, is Boris Johnson’s support for Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement at a third Commons vote in March 2019. Having resigned from the cabinet in protest at Mrs May’s plan, he endorsed it, not because he changed his mind about the content, but …

Read More »

Lebanon August Trends

What happened? The parliament approved the formation of a new government led by Prime Minister Najib Mikati, ending a thirteen-month period during which Lebanon was governed by caretaker authorities. Separately, Hizbollah imported fuel directly from Iran in violation of U.S. sanctions. Why does it matter? The cabinet’s appointment ended an …

Read More »

Will China Replace the US in Afghanistan?

Despite heightened expectations, significant Chinese assistance to Afghanistan is unlikely to materialise soon. The Taliban’s takeover of Kabul on 15 August has strengthened speculation regarding a rising Chinese role in Afghanistan to replace the US-led coalition’s two-decade-long presence. The Taliban have recently called Beijing a ‘top ally’. China played its …

Read More »