Recent Posts

IntelBrief: Iran and the Taliban Clash

A recent border clash between Iranian and Taliban forces marked the latest phase of a longstanding water rights dispute between the two countries. The fighting might upend Tehran’s relationship with Taliban leaders, which is already burdened by the Taliban’s brutal treatment of Shia Muslims and some Persian-speaking Afghan groups. Both …

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A War Long Wanted: Diplomatic Malpractice in Ukraine

Nothing written excuses or condones Russia’s actions. The Russian invasion is a war of aggression and a violation of international law. An attempt at understanding the Russian perspective on their war does not endorse the invasion, occupation and war crimes committed, and it certainly does not imply the Russians had …

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Ground Rules for the Age of AI Warfare

How to Keep Autonomous Weapons From Stumbling Into Conflict On March 14, a U.S. surveillance drone was on a routine mission in international airspace over the Black Sea when it was intercepted by two Russian fighter jets. For nearly half an hour, the jets harassed the American system, an MQ-9 …

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Prigozhin erupts: Has a Russian succession struggle begun?

The Wagner chief’s furious attack on elites and the war could portend turmoil with potential to extend well beyond Moscow. Is the post-Putin era in Russia at hand? Probably not yet, barring an unlikely collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine. But a furious public attack on Russia’s entire war effort …

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Ethnic conflict in Kosovo: Cutting the Gordian Knot

Democracy and legality haven’t solved the problem so the US must also rely on humanity, reality, self-interest, and sheer common sense. In the appallingly complicated politics of the western Balkans, one thing at least is abundantly clear: that without the presence of Western troops, and the threat of NATO military …

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