March, 2022

• 5 March

  In Ukraine, Georgia Sees Powerful and Worrying Parallels

  

  Georgia, a former Soviet republic that suffered its own Russian invasion in 2008 and Moscow’s destabilising support for its breakaway regions, is treading carefully on the war in Ukraine, fearing that if it upsets the Kremlin, it may be left to face the consequences alone. Since the Russian attack on …

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• 5 March

  The Coming Ukrainian Insurgency

  

  Russia’s Invasion Could Unleash Forces the Kremlin Can’t Control Russian forces have struck targets across Ukraine and seized key facilities and swaths of territory. The Ukrainian military is no match for this Russian juggernaut. Although some reports suggest Ukrainian troops have rebuffed attacks in certain parts of the country, it …

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• 5 March

  The Man Behind Putin’s Military

  

  How Sergey Shoygu Paved the Way for Russia’s Ukraine Assault On February 25, barely 24 hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces reached Kyiv. Even accounting for Russia’s vastly superior firepower, the speed of the military advance has been startling. But it also …

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• 5 March

  The Beginning of the End for Putin?

  

  Dictatorships Look Stable—Until They Aren’t Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine has been a clarifying moment. Since he came to power in 2000, various Western leaders have tried to cooperate, accommodate, or negotiate with him. But by embarking on a war of choice against a country he claims doesn’t …

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• 5 March

  What If Russia Loses?

  

  A Defeat for Moscow Won’t Be a Clear Victory for the West Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a strategic blunder by invading Ukraine. He has misjudged the political tenor of the country, which was not waiting to be liberated by Russian soldiers. He has misjudged the United States, the …

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• 5 March

  The New Face of War: Devastating Drone Attacks in Ukraine Have Implications for the US Military in the Middle East

  

  In dramatic video coverage currently going viral on YouTube and TikTok, Ukrainian drones are seen to destroy a Russian convoy, with startling speed — and total impunity. The story of how destructive such drone attacks are proving to be was picked up by several U.S. papers, and brought to light …

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• 5 March

  Neither East nor West: Turkey’s calculations in the Ukraine crisis

  

  The crisis in Ukraine, from the perspective of Ankara, carries significant risks, but also some opportunity. It is neither a crisis of their own making, nor one that they welcomed; nevertheless, Ankara has clearly developed a basic blueprint for weathering the storm. From the perspective of Washington policymakers, their strategy …

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• 5 March

  How will the war in Ukraine affect Gulf oil producers?

  

  The Russian invasion of Ukraine provides certain opportunities for the Gulf oil industry, and these are not as trivial as they may seem at first. Indeed, in late February 2022, the demand for Saudi and Emirati oil increased substantially as they can provide an alternative to Russian supplies in both …

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• 5 March

  Is the Middle East next on Putin’s agenda? What the US can do to prepare

  

  Conventional wisdom has it that the conflict in Ukraine will lead the United States to bolster its military presence along NATO’s boundary in Eastern Europe, with a concomitant downscaling in the Middle East. While presenting a robust front in support of NATO is of course critical, it would be a …

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• 5 March

  Nationalist and Imperial Thinking Define Putin’s Vision for Russia

  

  Putin has been seen as rational and realist in his foreign and security policy, calculating and often opportunistic. His decision to mount a full-scale military assault on Ukraine, however, highlights a shift by Russia’s president to embrace ethno-nationalist motivations, driven by a sense of a historic mission to rectify perceived …

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