Recent Posts

A Grand Strategy of Reciprocity

How to Build an Economic and Security Order That Works for America The United States has pursued two grand strategies in the 80 years since World War II. One was an extraordinary success: the policy of “containment” that guided American economic investments, foreign relations, and military deployments during the Cold …

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What will the Palestine deal unleash?

Amid the immediate joy of the hostage families, and the victorious crowing of the American President, Gaza’s peace plan may yet produce a long truce. Beyond the politicking of outsiders — Donald Trump’s quest for personal glory, Qatar’s desire to draw closer to the White House — fatigue among the …

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The Autumn of the Ayatollahs

For the first time in nearly four decades, Iran is on the cusp of a change of leadership—and maybe even of regime. As Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s reign nears its end, a 12-day war in June laid bare the fragility of the system he built. Israel battered Iranian cities …

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Syria’s captagon empire: A trade too deep to die

The captagon economy in Syria was never the creation of a single political authority. New data suggests it is part of a deeply rooted regional network that transcends borders, governments, and even regime change. When former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government fell on 8 December 2024, the world’s attention turned …

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Future Scenarios for the Two Libyas

Cultural facts and latest developments If we study the culture of individual peoples and set out to see how they differ from each other, even ethnically and within the same country, we can easily understand what centrifugal forces are at work and, if necessary, prepare remedies to prevent the collapse …

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Trump’s Sham Peace Plan

There is no shortage of failed peace plans in occupied Palestine, all of them incorporating detailed phases and timelines, going back to the presidency of Jimmy Carter. They end the same way. Israel gets what it wants initially — in the latest case the release of the remaining Israeli hostages …

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