Recent Posts

Roadmap to where?

The EU reconfigures its relationship to Syrian civil society The European Union’s new Roadmap for Civil Society Engagement marks a break in how Brussels approaches Syrian civil society: away from viewing it as a social movement and political force shaping state formation; and towards framing it as a local stabilisation …

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La guerre contre l’Iran 3.0

Lorsque la marine américaine, en coordination avec le Qatar et Oman, a tenté de faire passer un convoi de quatre navires dans le détroit d’Ormuz, via les eaux omanaises, mardi soir — plutôt que de passer par la route officiellement approuvée par l’Iran — Trump a peut-être imaginé (ou on …

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Integration blues

As opaque negotiations on SDF integration grind on, the city of Qamishli lives with parallel authorities, shrinking subsidies and growing uncertainty over who will govern nextHow is the SDF integration process going? On the streets of Qamishli many people say they just don’t know. Government forces, at least, are nowhere …

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New Realities in the Persian Gulf: Why U.S. Security Guarantees Are Losing Their Luster

How the U.S.-Iran showdown has shattered the myth of an “unsinkable” defense umbrella—and why the Gulf monarchies are quietly shopping for a new guarantor. The “Oil-for-Protection” Deal That BackfiredFor generations, the strategic bargain between Washington and the Persian Gulf monarchies was strikingly straightforward: The United States guarantees the territorial integrity …

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Why oil was never in danger of reaching $200 a barrel

Forecasts that oil could reach $200 a barrel spread rapidly at the start of the US-Iran war and experts pondered whether the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed for a prolonged period. But these dire predictions never materialised. The highest level the global benchmark price, Brent crude futures, reached was …

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The “Pax Silica” and the reset of the Argentine economy

The Pax Silica is an agreement promoted by the U.S. to strengthen supply chains for food, minerals, fuels, and technologies related to artificial intelligence, among other sectors. Through this mechanism, the U.S. seeks to reduce its dependence on China and, in turn, limit the Asian country’s presence in the Americas. …

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