The newly minted Australia-U.K.-U.S. security pact, known by its acronym AUKUS, was announced just days after the 70th anniversary of another regional trilateral defense arrangement, the ANZUS treaty, which comprises Australia, New Zealand and the United States. The genesis of both deals was deeply informed by history and geography. Signed …
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The AUKUS Deal’s Implications for China
Last Wednesday, the Biden administration unveiled a historic security partnership in the Indo-Pacific region between the U.S., Australia and the U.K., known as AUKUS. As part of the deal’s terms and conditions, the United States and the United Kingdom will help Australia build and deploy nuclear-powered submarines, as well as …
Read More »Behind the Scenes of the Taliban’s Internal Power Struggle
The Taliban’s announcement earlier this month that it had formed an all-male “interim” Cabinet in Afghanistan comprising only the movement’s members—many of them veterans of the Taliban’s last stint in power in the 1990s—took many observers by surprise. Members of the notorious Haqqani network, which controls southeastern Afghanistan, were placed …
Read More »Turkey: NATO’s Pro-Russian, Taliban-Friendly Ally
Around the Taliban, and in a bizarre combination of convergence of interests and ideological kinship, a new anti-Western circle is evolving, including a willing NATO member state…. anti-Western sentiments are bringing together these regional powers, who are now courting Afghanistan’s radical rulers. The hard lesson learned from relying on an …
Read More »Former Afghan Vice President Karim Khalili Warns The Taliban Rulers: ‘Afghanistan’s Shi’ite Minority, The Hazara Community, Will Resume Armed Confrontation’
In an interview with Russian news agency Tass, former Afghan vice president Karim Khalili warned the Afghan Taliban that Shi’ite Muslims may join hands with other ethnic groups in Afghanistan to form a national resistance against the Taliban. Karim Khalili’s name has figured into the list of Afghan leaders likely …
Read More »Islamic State Under-Reporting in Central Syria: Misdirection, Misinformation, or Miscommunication?
Summary The central media apparatus of the Islamic State group is mis-reporting on the activities of its cells in central Syria. Rather than exaggerating their capabilities, something that it is conventionally assumed to be doing all the time,1 its Central Media Diwan appears either to be deliberately under-playing them, or, …
Read More »The Fourth Division: Syria’s parallel army
After 40 years, Syria once again has dual military rule, where the president and his brother are the highest authorities. In the early 1980s, Rifaat al-Assad, the brother of Hafez al-Assad, was the commander of the Defense Companies and the strong man in Syria in the military, security, and even …
Read More »OPEC+: No more production cuts?
OPEC+ oil producers are unlikely to step back from their plans to increase production, as both the short-term market forecasts and long-term expectations of structural changes in the global oil market are forcing producers to focus more on market share expansion. The last two OPEC+ meetings clearly demonstrated the cartel …
Read More »Courting danger, Erdoğan ramps up reliance on China
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is upping its Black Sea engagement. To date, China has been hesitant to commit to greater transport linkages and the accompanying politico-economic interventions along the region’s southern routes. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the PRC instead largely opted for the greater stability …
Read More »The Fourth Division: Syria’s parallel army
After 40 years, Syria once again has dual military rule, where the president and his brother are the highest authorities. In the early 1980s, Rifaat al-Assad, the brother of Hafez al-Assad, was the commander of the Defense Companies and the strong man in Syria in the military, security, and even …
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