The countries of the Middle East increasingly see Israel as their new shared threat. Israel’s war in Gaza, its expansionist military policies, and its revisionist posture are reshaping the region in ways that few anticipated. Its September strike on Hamas’s political leaders in Qatar—the seventh country hit by Israel since …
Read More »Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2025
Toplines Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Poland and launch additional drone incursions and blame Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) baselessly claimed on September 30 that Ukraine is preparing to conduct a false flag attack against critical Polish infrastructure in order to …
Read More »Is the Baghdad-Erbil oil deal a blueprint for settlement—or a stopgap?
After nearly two and a half years, a fragile but consequential agreement between Iraq’s federal government in Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil, the seven major Oil Companies (IOC), and a local Kurdish oil company has resumed oil exports through the Iraqi-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) to the international market. …
Read More »Building an AI Alliance in the Middle East
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Read More »Beyond Antecedents: The Application of Reciprocal Determinism to Understanding Radicalisation Process(es)
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Read More »The Silent Rise of the Left-Wing Militia
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Read More »Will ISIS’s attempts to kidnap Syria from the transitional authority succeed?
ISIS has been witnessing a new surge in its activity inside Syria since the change of the former regime in December 2024, taking advantage of the fragility of the transitional authority and the overlap of its structure with different factions. Despite intense international strikes, the group has been able to …
Read More »Israel and southern Syria: Force limits and settlement determinants in Sweida
The province of Sweida witnessed a wide security escalation after clashes between Druze factions and Bedouin tribes, followed by a military intervention by the Syrian Interim Government, prompting Israel to carry out air strikes it considered a response to the violation of the principle of the “demilitarized zone” and its …
Read More »Hemelik Maneuver: Changing the Regional Security Reality
The Middle East is undergoing a radical transformation after Israel succeeded in dismantling the Iranian cordon around it through the Hemlik Maneuver, which moved the confrontation from its borders to the depths of Iran. This process has redraw the balance of power and opened the door to a new regional …
Read More »US-Israeli proposal and transition towards a unilateral path in the Gaza Strip
The Israeli-American track is undergoing a qualitative shift with the announcement of US envoy Steve Whittoff of a “comprehensive deal” to stop the war in Gaza, including the release of hostages, the disarmament of Hamas, reconstruction, and the imposition of an international administration led by Washington, in a unilateral path …
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