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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 29, 2026

Toplines US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the United States and Ukraine have finalized security guarantees for Ukraine. Rubio stated on January 28 that it “could [be] argue[d]” that the United States and Ukraine have finalized security guarantees.[1] Rubio stated that the United States will play a “key …

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Iran Update, January 29, 2026

Toplines Iran is likely trying to deter US military action against Iran by deploying forces and conducting naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS)-affiliated outlet Defa Press claimed on January 29 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy deployed “hundreds of fast, missile-launching, …

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All Eyes on Southern Syria

The government’s gains in the northwest will have an echo nationally, but will they alter Israeli calculations? By crossing the Euphrates River in recent days, Syrian government forces broke through a decade-old boundary that had defined Syria’s conflict, behind which the Kurd-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had sustained a de …

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Where Might Developments in Yemen Lead?

In an interview, Ibrahim Jalal discusses the Southern Transitional Council’s recent takeover of Hadhramawt and Mahra. Ibrahim Jalal was previously a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, where he specialized on Yemen as well as on the evolving regional security architecture in the Middle East …

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