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The tectonics of Middle Eastern geopolitics: Seismic signs in the Caucasus

Throughout 2020, the geopolitics between the Middle East and its northern frontier have converged further. Russia, Turkey, and Iran not only compete for influence (as states and through non-state actors) in core countries of the Middle East and North Africa like Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and beyond in the Gulf. …

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Iran’s cyber future

Iran’s attempts to achieve cyber dominance both within the MENA region and around the world have been well documented, particularly its efforts to spread pro-Iranian messaging and “tell Iran’s story.” This strategy is shaped by the challenging international context facing Tehran, which is suffering economically under U.S. sanctions and largely …

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Fossil fuel subsidies and renewable energies in MENA: An oxymoron?

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region plays a central role in the global oil and natural gas markets. The region is home to more than 52 and 42 percent of global crude oil and natural gas proven reserves, respectively. In the past decade, the region generated 36 and …

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Beyond the elite: Taking protest and public opinion seriously in the Kurdistan Region

In early December 2020, at least eight people were killed and hundreds of others were injured during violent protests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) sparked by deteriorating economic conditions and the government’s failure to pay public sector salaries. Seven of the dead, including a 13-year-old boy, were killed …

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Russia Is Getting More Than It Bargained For in Libya and Syria

Is Russia’s lucky streak in Syria and Libya finally running out? The Kremlin has gambled big on proxy warfare in both countries, deploying thousands of private military contractors with the so-called Wagner Group to back its favorite strongmen. But after a recent run of misfortunes for Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, …

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An Isolated Erdogan Learns the Cost of Hubris in Idlib

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Russia on Thursday, seeking to persuade President Vladimir Putin to help stem disaster in Syria’s Idlib province. Turkish forces are locked in fierce combat there with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army in what has become the last bastion of the armed rebels fighting …

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After the U.S., Turkey Should Be Next to Leave Syria

With the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic crash dominating the headlines, the civil war in Syria has faded into media obscurity. But there is more bad news there that warrants the world’s attention. Turkey is engaged in a military campaign in Syria’s northwestern ldlib province that risks a conflict …

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Escalating to Deescalate? Why Turkey Is Targeting Syria’s Army

For the first time in Syria’s nine-year war, the Turkish military this week launched direct attacks on the Syrian army. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Monday that he ordered howitzers and F-16 fighter jets to hit President Bashar al-Assad’s forces near the Turkish border in response to the killing of …

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How to Manage the Threat of an Expanding Islamic State in Africa

Every expert on transnational jihadism knew that eradicating the Islamic State’s self-declared “caliphate” in Syria and Iraq would not lead to the end of this brutal, malignant movement. Since it had become as much an ideology and a brand as an actual organization, holding physical territory and establishing a proto-state …

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ISIS Isn’t Defeated, and Trump Doesn’t Have a Plan for What’s to Come

During his presidential bid, Donald Trump hammered on about the threat posed to America by the self-styled Islamic State, and how he would defeat it. As an issue, it was perfect for him, since the Islamic State’s sociopathic brutality fueled fear and anger among his core supporters—emotions that candidate Trump …

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