Recent Posts

Is a Full-Scale Middle East War Already Here?

Iran and Israel Face Limitations That Make Massive Escalation Unlikely Many analysts watching the conflict in the Middle East have warned that the present fighting could escalate further. At the moment, such fears are concentrated on the prospect of a war between Iran and Israel. Of course, that war is …

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Iran’s Year of Living Dangerously

How the Failure of Tehran’s Strategy Is Raising Its Appetite for Risk Over four decades, in an effort to preserve itself, project regional influence, and deter adversaries, the Islamic Republic of Iran has invested in three projects: funding and arming a network of nonstate allies; developing ballistic missiles that can …

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“They Are Liars”

Israel’s attacks in Beirut, and American complicity in them, has confirmed for many Lebanese how little they matter to the United States. On September 29, Houssein Al Kadi, a soldier in the Lebanese army, left his brother’s house in Zboud, in northeastern Lebanon, at 8:15 a.m. to report to his …

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Iran’s nuclear messaging campaign

Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1, 2024, marked a significant escalation in the ongoing regional tensions. This assault, reportedly involving 180 missiles, was the Islamic Republic of Iran’s largest yet against Israel, targeting military and security sites in retaliation for Israeli assassinations of leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah …

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Key takeaways from new polling on Iran’s foreign policy and regional role

Public opinion in Iran: Foreign policy contradictions between diplomacy and military action Arash Ghafouri A new public opinion poll finds the Iranian population in overwhelming, if contradictory, agreement: a majority say the country’s economic problems stem from the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy decisions, while citizens favor a continued Iranian military …

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Iran’s Terrible, Horrible, Very Bad Year

There is no shortage of misery in the Middle East today. As the region marked the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 massacre, Israel mourned the murder of around 1,200 Israelis and worried about the fate of the remaining 100 hostages held by Hamas. Tens of thousands of Palestinians have …

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